Brest 4-3 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 7 Apr 2024

Brest
4-3 HT 3-1
Metz
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.49
Draw
31%
3.8
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.16
No
53%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.85
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
4.09
6+ Goals
9%
19.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
18.6
X/1
14%
3.43
X/2
11%
12.8
X/X
15%
4.99
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
8%
11.5
2/X
8%
19.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
63%
-17.5pp
31%
Draw
23%
+8.5pp
23%
Away Win
15%
+8.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.6pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz EU Bookmakers 18%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +14%
1.72/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.71
+14% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +10%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
414 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 74%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
19.0 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Metz
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.25 xG 0.79
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
432 Passes 292
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.12.2023 Metz Metz 0-1 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
24.04.2022 Metz Metz 0-1 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
26.09.2021 Brest Brest 1-2 HT 0-1 Metz Metz FR1
31.01.2021 Brest Brest 2-4 HT 1-1 Metz Metz FR1
29.11.2020 Metz Metz 0-2 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
30.10.2019 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FRLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
4-3
AWAY Metz
3.75 xG 2.25
66% Ball Possession 34%
25 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
546 Passes 234
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brest vs Metz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest squeezed past Metz 4-3. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Brest as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Brest had 66% of the ball to Metz's 34%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 3.75 to 2.25 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Brest's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brest had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Brest and 1.17 for Metz.

What was the final score of Brest vs Metz?

Brest 4-3 Metz in the France - Ligue 1 on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brest vs Metz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Brest 45%, draw 31%, Metz 23%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brest) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brest) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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