Nantes 1-3 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 7 Apr 2024

Nantes
1-3 HT 1-0
Lyon
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Nantes vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.91
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.01
6+ Goals
10%
18.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 32% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.04
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
10%
6.68
X/2
15%
4.66
X/X
12%
4.24
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
19%
3.03
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+3.6pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nantes v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nantes EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 48%
-13% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.34/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.32
-33% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -19%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
285 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 459 · 82%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
22.3 Crosses 15.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Nantes vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nantes
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lyon
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.21 xG 1.34
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
288 Passes 479
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.12.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-0 HT 0-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
05.04.2023 Nantes Nantes 1-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FRK
17.03.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 1-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
11.01.2023 Nantes Nantes 0-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
14.05.2022 Lyon Lyon 3-2 HT 1-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
27.08.2021 Nantes Nantes 0-1 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1

Nantes 1-3 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nantes
1-3
AWAY Lyon
1.25 xG 2.55
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 5
311 Passes 480
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 44
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nantes vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon saw off Nantes 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nantes had 41% of the ball to Lyon's 59%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 1.25 to 2.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Nantes and 1.00 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Nantes vs Lyon?

Nantes 1-3 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nantes vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Nantes 32%, draw 26%, Lyon 42%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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