Heerenveen 2-3 Utrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 7 Apr 2024

Heerenveen
2-3 HT 0-1
Utrecht
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Heerenveen vs Utrecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.33
Draw
34%
3.18
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.68
Over 2.5
36%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.74
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.26
6+ Goals
9%
21.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 35% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.53
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
10%
13.8
X/1
12%
4.98
X/2
11%
5.69
X/X
16%
4.18
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
16%
4.24
2/X
8%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
39%
-4.5pp
34%
Draw
28%
+6.3pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.9pp
64%
Under 2.5
56%
+8.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
44%
-8.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.5pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heerenveen v Utrecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht EU Bookmakers 37%
-12% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +15%
1.47/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.45
-18% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
337 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 72%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
19.3 Crosses 19.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Heerenveen vs Utrecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Utrecht
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.00 xG 1.34
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
384 Passes 321
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 0-2 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
04.02.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
29.10.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-2 HT 1-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
08.07.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-1 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HAZ
27.02.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-2 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
23.10.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 2-1 HT 1-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL

Heerenveen 2-3 Utrecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
2-3
AWAY Utrecht
1.04 xG 1.45
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
376 Passes 285
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs Utrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht squeezed past Heerenveen 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 34% / 31% — and on the day Utrecht made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Heerenveen had 55% of the ball to Utrecht's 45%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 1.04 to 1.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Heerenveen and 1.33 for Utrecht.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs Utrecht?

Heerenveen 2-3 Utrecht in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs Utrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 35%, draw 34%, Utrecht 31%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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