Vitesse 0-3 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 7 Apr 2024

Vitesse
0-3 HT 0-0
NEC Nijmegen
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.15
Over 2.5
48%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.17
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
12%
9.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.02
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.45
1/X
5%
12.8
X/1
13%
6.24
X/2
10%
5.26
X/X
14%
5.18
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
19%
3.16
2/X
9%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.45 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.7pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitesse v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitesse EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.11/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.58
-35% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +41%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 81%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.8
18.2 Crosses 18.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.3

Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitesse
5W-1D-0L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.55 xG 0.78
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
294 Passes 274
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.10.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-3 HT 1-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
16.04.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-4 HT 0-2 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
15.01.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 0-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
27.02.2022 Vitesse Vitesse 4-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
17.10.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
02.04.2017 Vitesse Vitesse 2-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

Vitesse 0-3 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitesse
0-3
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.22 xG 1.10
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 1
357 Passes 299
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 11
26 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen swept aside Vitesse 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day NEC Nijmegen made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Vitesse had 54% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 46%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 1.22 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitesse had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Vitesse and 0.67 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen?

Vitesse 0-3 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitesse vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated an NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Vitesse 35%, draw 27%, NEC Nijmegen 38%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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