Maribor 1-1 Celje — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 7 May 2025

Maribor
1-1 HT 1-1
Celje
📅07/05/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Slovenia - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Maribor vs Celje Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.53
No
51%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
2.83
6+ Goals
10%
8.18
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.22 — our 30% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-0.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
61%
-12.2pp
51%
BTTS No
39%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Maribor v Celje — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maribor EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Celje EU Bookmakers 43%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.38/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.06
+13% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.6 Yellow Cards 3.1

Maribor vs Celje Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maribor
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Celje
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.04.2025 Maribor Maribor 0-1 HT 0-0 Celje Celje SLVNK
08.02.2025 Celje Celje 1-2 HT 0-1 Maribor Maribor SLVN
06.10.2024 Maribor Maribor 1-2 HT 1-0 Celje Celje SLVN
18.09.2024 Celje Celje 2-1 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
09.03.2024 Celje Celje 1-1 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
12.11.2023 Maribor Maribor 0-1 HT 0-0 Celje Celje SLVN

Maribor 1-1 Celje — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maribor
1-1
AWAY Celje
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Maribor vs Celje
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maribor and Celje couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Maribor had 54% of the ball to Celje's 46%, shots finished 20-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celje led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Maribor and 1.33 for Celje.

What was the final score of Maribor vs Celje?

Maribor 1-1 Celje in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 07/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maribor vs Celje?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celje win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Maribor 34%, draw 26%, Celje 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Celje), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Celje) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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