Arnavutluk 3-1 Azerbaycan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 7 Jun 2024

📅07/06/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.56
2-3 Goals
46%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.62
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.8pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+6.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arnavutluk EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Azerbaycan EU Bookmakers 31%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +33% / +33%
1.48/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/1.33
-8% / +118% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +70% / +20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arnavutluk
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Azerbaycan
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
11.11.2011 Arnavutluk Arnavutluk 0-1 HT 0-1 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arnavutluk
3-1
AWAY Azerbaycan
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
345 Passes 574
87% Pass Accuracy 91%
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arnavutluk vs Azerbaycan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arnavutluk saw off Azerbaycan 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Arnavutluk found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Arnavutluk had 42% of the ball to Azerbaycan's 58%, shots finished 12-13.

What was the final score of Arnavutluk vs Azerbaycan?

Arnavutluk 3-1 Azerbaycan in the Friendlies on 07/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arnavutluk vs Azerbaycan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arnavutluk win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Arnavutluk 38%, draw 29%, Azerbaycan 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arnavutluk) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arnavutluk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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