Curaçao 4-0 St. Lucia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 7 Jun 2025

📅07/06/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.22
Draw
19%
5.71
Away
15%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.74
Over 2.5
51%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
5.98
2-3 Goals
38%
2.07
4-5 Goals
23%
2.46
6+ Goals
10%
5.16
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.98 — our 29% vs market 11.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
24%
X/2
4%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
77%
-10.9pp
19%
Draw
14%
+4.5pp
15%
Away Win
8%
+6.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
33%
+16.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
67%
-16.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.3pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Curaçao EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Lucia EU Bookmakers 11%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / +12%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
422 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
Crosses 12.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Curaçao
1W-0D-1L
AWAY St. Lucia
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.19 xG 0.86
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
364 Passes 138
83% Pass Accuracy 64%
30 Box Touches 8
20 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
19.11.2024 Curaçao Curaçao 4-1 HT 2-1 St. Lucia St. Lucia CON
07.09.2024 St. Lucia St. Lucia 2-1 HT 1-0 Curaçao Curaçao CON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Curaçao
4-0
AWAY St. Lucia
5.48 xG 0.55
66% Ball Possession 34%
27 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 2
456 Passes 191
90% Pass Accuracy 75%
63 Box Touches 7
18 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Curaçao vs St. Lucia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Curaçao ran out comfortable winners over St. Lucia 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Curaçao as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Curaçao had 66% of the ball to St. Lucia's 34%, shots finished 27-6, expected goals 5.48 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Curaçao and 1.50 for St. Lucia.

What was the final score of Curaçao vs St. Lucia?

Curaçao 4-0 St. Lucia in the World Cup Qualifiers on 07/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Curaçao vs St. Lucia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Curaçao win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Curaçao 66%, draw 19%, St. Lucia 15%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Curaçao), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Curaçao) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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