Naftan Novopolotsk 3-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 7 Aug 2026

📅07/08/2026 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.15
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.41
6+ Goals
10%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+1.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-3.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk EU Bookmakers 49%
+11% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.17/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.64
+11% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +58%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
253 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.04.2026 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 2-0 HT 1-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
29.11.2025 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 2-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR
06.07.2025 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-1 HT 0-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
24.11.2024 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR
30.06.2024 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-3 HT 0-3 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
30.10.2021 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-0 HT 0-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
3-0
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
16 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Naftan Novopolotsk vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naftan Novopolotsk ran out comfortable winners over Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, shots finished 16-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Naftan Novopolotsk had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Naftan Novopolotsk and 0.33 for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk.

What was the final score of Naftan Novopolotsk vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

Naftan Novopolotsk 3-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 07/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naftan Novopolotsk vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Naftan Novopolotsk 29%, draw 29%, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 42%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BLR More Belarus - Premier League
7 Aug 2026
19:45 Slavia Mozyr vs Dnepr Mogilev Analysis →