Naftan Novopolotsk 2-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.84
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
16.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 31% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.2pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk EU Bookmakers 29%
-17% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
2.11/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.44/1.43
+42% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.07.2025 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-1 HT 0-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
24.11.2024 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR
30.06.2024 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-3 HT 0-3 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
30.10.2021 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-0 HT 0-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR1
14.08.2021 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR1
31.05.2020 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 4-2 HT 1-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
2-0
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Naftan Novopolotsk vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naftan Novopolotsk got the better of Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Naftan Novopolotsk as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Naftan Novopolotsk had 50% of the ball to Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk's 50%, shots finished 12-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Naftan Novopolotsk and 0.83 for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk.

What was the final score of Naftan Novopolotsk vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

Naftan Novopolotsk 2-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naftan Novopolotsk vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naftan Novopolotsk win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Naftan Novopolotsk 43%, draw 26%, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naftan Novopolotsk), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Naftan Novopolotsk) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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