Eastleigh 1-0 Tamworth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
1.97
Over Pick
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
22%
3.61
2-3
37%
1.81
4-5
27%
3.34
6+
14%
12.1
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.34 — our 27% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.26
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.55
X/1
18%
4.06
X/2
7%
8.96
X/X
7%
5.21
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
11%
6.78
2/X
8%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-2.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.3pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eastleigh EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Tamworth EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -23%
1.75/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.39/1.93
+0% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -65% / -19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
410 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 5.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eastleigh
1-0
AWAY Tamworth
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Eastleigh vs Tamworth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eastleigh edged past Tamworth 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Eastleigh as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Eastleigh had 60% of the ball to Tamworth's 40%, shots finished 9-12.

What was the final score of Eastleigh vs Tamworth?

Eastleigh 1-0 Tamworth in the England - National League on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eastleigh vs Tamworth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eastleigh win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Eastleigh 52%, draw 25%, Tamworth 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Eastleigh) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Eastleigh) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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