Virtus Verona 1-0 Novara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.45
Over 2.5
44%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.19
No
50%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
6.29
6+ Goals
11%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-2.5pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.1pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
65%
-9.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
35%
+9.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
42%
+8.5pp
50%
BTTS No
58%
-8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Virtus Verona EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Novara EU Bookmakers 39%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -3%
1.06/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.46
-9% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -25%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
242 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 220 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Virtus Verona
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Novara
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.02.2024 Novara Novara 1-0 HT 0-0 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona İTC
29.09.2023 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona 1-1 HT 1-1 Novara Novara İTC
11.05.2023 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona 3-0 HT 2-0 Novara Novara İTC
21.01.2023 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona 0-1 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
17.09.2022 Novara Novara 0-0 HT 0-0 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Virtus Verona
1-0
AWAY Novara
48% Ball Possession 52%
23 Total Shots 18
10 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Virtus Verona vs Novara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Virtus Verona nicked a narrow win over Novara 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 32% / 35% — and on the day Virtus Verona made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Virtus Verona had 48% of the ball to Novara's 52%, shots finished 23-18.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Novara led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Virtus Verona and 0.60 for Novara.

What was the final score of Virtus Verona vs Novara?

Virtus Verona 1-0 Novara in the Italy - Serie C on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Virtus Verona vs Novara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Virtus Verona 33%, draw 32%, Novara 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Novara) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Novara) ✓ Under 2.5
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