Al Nasr 2-1 Al Urooba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UAE - League Cup, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.37
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.43
Over 2.5
50%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
5.12
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
21%
2.74
6+ Goals
12%
7.01
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.12 — our 28% vs market 14.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
69%
-14.4pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.7pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+8.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
38%
+12.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
62%
-12.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.6pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nasr EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Urooba EU Bookmakers 16%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
0.99/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/2.28
-42% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +1%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
406 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
14.1 Crosses 12.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nasr
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Al Urooba
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.67 xG 0.45
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 6
448 Passes 260
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.08.2024 Al Urooba Al Urooba 1-5 HT 0-2 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAE
17.08.2024 Al Urooba Al Urooba 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAELK
11.02.2022 Al Urooba Al Urooba 1-1 HT 0-1 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAE
26.08.2021 Al Nasr Al Nasr 5-0 HT 3-0 Al Urooba Al Urooba BAE
POST-MATCH Al Nasr vs Al Urooba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nasr nicked a narrow win over Al Urooba 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Nasr as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Al Nasr had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for Al Nasr and 0.50 for Al Urooba.

What was the final score of Al Nasr vs Al Urooba?

Al Nasr 2-1 Al Urooba in the UAE - League Cup on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nasr vs Al Urooba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Nasr win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Al Nasr 54%, draw 24%, Al Urooba 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nasr) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Nasr) ✗ BTTS No
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