Baglan Dragons 4-3 Cwmbran Celtic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
2.19
Draw
18%
3.72
Away
24%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.43
No
45%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
41%
+16.2pp
18%
Draw
23%
-4.9pp
24%
Away Win
35%
-11.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.6pp
45%
BTTS No
34%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cwmbran Celtic EU Bookmakers 39%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.34/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.17/2.52
-30% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -31%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baglan Dragons
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Cwmbran Celtic
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
09.03.2024 Cwmbran Celtic Cwmbran Celtic 1-1 HT 0-1 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
28.08.2023 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 3-3 HT 3-1 Cwmbran Celtic Cwmbran Celtic GALFAW
POST-MATCH Baglan Dragons vs Cwmbran Celtic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baglan Dragons edged past Cwmbran Celtic 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Baglan Dragons as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Baglan Dragons and 2.00 for Cwmbran Celtic.

What was the final score of Baglan Dragons vs Cwmbran Celtic?

Baglan Dragons 4-3 Cwmbran Celtic in the Wales - FAW Championship on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baglan Dragons vs Cwmbran Celtic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Baglan Dragons win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Baglan Dragons 58%, draw 18%, Cwmbran Celtic 24%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Baglan Dragons), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Baglan Dragons) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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