CA Penarol 1-0 Plaza Colonia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 7 Sep 2025

📅07/09/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.25
Draw
18%
5.15
Away
12%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.75
No
53%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
3%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
76%
-5.7pp
18%
Draw
17%
+1.2pp
12%
Away Win
7%
+4.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
32%
+14.8pp
53%
BTTS No
68%
-14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Plaza Colonia EU Bookmakers 9%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
1.72/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.75
-16% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +12%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 165 · 63%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Plaza Colonia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
60% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.05.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia URU
16.03.2025 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
25.11.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-0 HT 0-0 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia URU
24.04.2023 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 1-2 HT 1-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
10.10.2022 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-1 HT 0-1 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia URU
06.10.2022 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 0-1 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
1-0
AWAY Plaza Colonia
63% Ball Possession 37%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Plaza Colonia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol squeezed past Plaza Colonia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, CA Penarol had 63% of the ball to Plaza Colonia's 37%, shots finished 8-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for CA Penarol and 0.50 for Plaza Colonia.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Plaza Colonia?

CA Penarol 1-0 Plaza Colonia in the Uruguay - Premier League on 07/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Plaza Colonia?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 70%, draw 18%, Plaza Colonia 12%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
URU More Uruguay - Premier League
7 Sep 2025
00:00 Nacional de Football vs Racing Club Montevideo Analysis →
00:00 Boston River vs CA River Plate Analysis →
17:00 Cerro vs Cerro Largo Analysis →
21:30 Progreso vs Miramar Misiones Analysis →