Progreso 3-2 Miramar Misiones — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 7 Sep 2025

📅07/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.2pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.8pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.0pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Miramar Misiones EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.04/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.06
-21% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Miramar Misiones
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.06.2025 Progreso Progreso 1-0 HT 0-0 Miramar Misiones Miramar Misiones URU
16.03.2025 Miramar Misiones Miramar Misiones 1-1 Progreso Progreso URU
18.08.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 Miramar Misiones Miramar Misiones URU
18.02.2024 Miramar Misiones Miramar Misiones 2-3 HT 0-2 Progreso Progreso URU
02.09.2023 Progreso Progreso 1-1 HT 0-0 Miramar Misiones Miramar Misiones URU2
14.05.2023 Miramar Misiones Miramar Misiones 2-2 HT 1-2 Progreso Progreso URU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
3-2
AWAY Miramar Misiones
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Miramar Misiones
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso nicked a narrow win over Miramar Misiones 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Progreso as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Progreso had 46% of the ball to Miramar Misiones's 54%, shots finished 10-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Progreso had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Progreso and 1.00 for Miramar Misiones.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Miramar Misiones?

Progreso 3-2 Miramar Misiones in the Uruguay - Premier League on 07/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Miramar Misiones?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Progreso 42%, draw 25%, Miramar Misiones 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progreso) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Progreso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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