Marathon 2-1 Motagua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 7 Nov 2024

📅07/11/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
41%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.7
No
56%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
21%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
37%
-4.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
41%
Away Win
35%
+6.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
55%
-10.6pp
56%
BTTS No
45%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marathon EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Motagua EU Bookmakers 38%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
1.26/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/0.98
-6% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marathon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Motagua
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
02.09.2024 Motagua Motagua 0-1 HT 0-1 Marathon Marathon HON
08.04.2024 Marathon Marathon 1-1 HT 1-0 Motagua Motagua HON
12.02.2024 Motagua Motagua 2-0 HT 1-0 Marathon Marathon HON
10.12.2023 Marathon Marathon 2-2 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
07.12.2023 Motagua Motagua 2-1 HT 1-0 Marathon Marathon HON
08.10.2023 Marathon Marathon 2-1 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Marathon vs Motagua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marathon nicked a narrow win over Motagua 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Motagua at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Marathon and 1.33 for Motagua.

What was the final score of Marathon vs Motagua?

Marathon 2-1 Motagua in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 07/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marathon vs Motagua?

Before kick-off our model rated an Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Marathon 32%, draw 27%, Motagua 41%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Motagua) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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