Modena 1-1 Salernitana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 7 Dec 2024

Modena
1-1 HT 0-0
Salernitana
📅07/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2025/2026

Modena vs Salernitana Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.66
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
4.52
6+ Goals
8%
23.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 35% vs market 31.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.92
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.85
X/1
17%
4.7
X/2
10%
8.89
X/X
17%
4.49
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
15%
7.26
2/X
6%
16.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.7pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Modena v Salernitana — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Salernitana EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +17%
1.25/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.30
+0% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
20.7 Crosses 16.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0

Modena vs Salernitana Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Salernitana
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
The Meetings
07.05.2016 Salernitana Salernitana 0-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
18.12.2015 Modena Modena 2-0 HT 2-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
06.02.2010 Modena Modena 1-0 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
06.09.2009 Salernitana Salernitana 1-2 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
14.02.2009 Salernitana Salernitana 3-2 HT 2-1 Modena Modena İTB
19.09.2008 Modena Modena 0-1 HT 0-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTB

Modena 1-1 Salernitana — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
1-1
AWAY Salernitana
0.75 xG 1.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
417 Passes 260
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 10
13 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Modena vs Salernitana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Modena and Salernitana couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Modena at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Modena had 59% of the ball to Salernitana's 41%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.75 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Modena had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Modena and 0.83 for Salernitana.

What was the final score of Modena vs Salernitana?

Modena 1-1 Salernitana in the Italy - Serie B on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs Salernitana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Modena win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Modena 41%, draw 28%, Salernitana 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Modena), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Modena) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTB More Italy - Serie B
7 Dec 2024
17:00 Mantova vs Pisa Analysis →
17:00 FC Bari 1908 vs Cesena Analysis →
17:00 Carrarese vs Palermo Analysis →
19:15 Cosenza Calcio vs Frosinone Analysis →