HNK Gorica 1-0 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.91
Draw
29%
4.08
Away
52%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.03
No
49%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.31
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 25% vs market 24.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
30%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
14%
+5.3pp
29%
Draw
21%
+8.3pp
52%
Away Win
66%
-13.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
45%
+6.0pp
49%
BTTS No
55%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 70%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
0.86/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/0.85
-8% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -3%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
260 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 79%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
13.9 Crosses 16.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Hajduk Split
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.59 xG 1.76
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
305 Passes 420
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.09.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 4-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
19.05.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
09.03.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-3 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
02.12.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
17.09.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
26.04.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
1-0
AWAY Hajduk Split
1.53 xG 2.71
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 27
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 15
216 Passes 423
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 57
7 Crosses 45
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica edged past Hajduk Split 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 35% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 65%, shots finished 10-27, expected goals 1.53 to 2.71 — on chances, Hajduk Split could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for HNK Gorica and 2.17 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split?

HNK Gorica 1-0 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 19%, draw 29%, Hajduk Split 52%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hajduk Split), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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