Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tigres UANL v Cruz Azul — Team-Based Signals
Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Tigres UANL 1-1 Cruz Azul — Actual Match Statistics
Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Tigres UANL at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Tigres UANL had 41% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 59%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.18 to 1.51.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.00 for Cruz Azul.
What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?
Tigres UANL 1-1 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 55%, draw 24%, Cruz Azul 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tigres UANL) went the other way.