FC Sochi 2-4 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 7 Dec 2025

📅07/12/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
57%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.82
No
46%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.37
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.41
6+ Goals
10%
12.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
7.98
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
23.1
1/X
5%
16.8
X/1
5%
9.86
X/2
21%
4.15
X/X
13%
5.37
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
27%
2.16
2/X
6%
15.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.1 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
21%
-1.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
57%
Away Win
55%
+1.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.7pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Sochi EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 60%
-10% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.94/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.13
-28% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -55%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
245 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 78%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
15.5 Crosses 22.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Sochi
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.01 xG 1.71
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
346 Passes 299
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.07.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-0 HT 0-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
10.03.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-2 HT 2-1 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
27.08.2023 FC Sochi FC Sochi 0-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
08.05.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
08.10.2022 FC Sochi FC Sochi 4-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
17.04.2022 FC Sochi FC Sochi 2-2 HT 2-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Sochi
2-4
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.70 xG 4.07
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 1
385 Passes 400
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Sochi vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow beat FC Sochi 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, FC Sochi had 49% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 51%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.70 to 4.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Sochi and 1.83 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of FC Sochi vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

FC Sochi 2-4 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Sochi vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split FC Sochi 19%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Moscow 57%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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