Royal Antwerp 5-1 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Cup, 8 Jan 2025

📅08/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
39%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.76
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.08
6+ Goals
12%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 26% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.87
1/2
8%
24.3
1/X
6%
13.2
X/1
11%
7.11
X/2
20%
4.87
X/X
11%
5.03
2/1
9%
33.0
2/2
11%
2.85
2/X
8%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
29%
+6.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
39%
Away Win
45%
-5.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Royal Antwerp EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 49%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -60% / -60%
0.23/3.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.00
-81% / -59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Royal Antwerp
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.96 xG 1.32
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
426 Passes 242
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
01.12.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 1-1 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp BEL
15.09.2024 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 2-0 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
09.05.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 HT 1-0 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp BEK
28.04.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 4-1 HT 2-1 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp BEL
25.04.2024 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 0-3 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
17.03.2024 Royal Antwerp Royal Antwerp 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Royal Antwerp
5-1
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Royal Antwerp vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Royal Antwerp swept aside Union Saint-Gilloise 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 39%) promised a tight game; Royal Antwerp found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Royal Antwerp had 59% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 41%, shots finished 13-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Royal Antwerp and 1.83 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Royal Antwerp vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Royal Antwerp 5-1 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Cup on 08/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Royal Antwerp vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Royal Antwerp 36%, draw 26%, Union Saint-Gilloise 39%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →