Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid — Maç Sonucu ve İstatistikler

Atletico Madrid

1 - 2 HT 0 - 1

Real Madrid

📅08/01/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗

Spain - Super Cup – 2025/2026

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

31%

2.84

Draw

26%

3.45

Away

43%

2.11

Under/Over 2.5

Under

39%

2.23

Over Pick

61%

1.61

Both Teams to Score

Yes

61%

1.5

39%

2.4

Total Goals

0-1

19%

4.5

2-3

45%

1.9

4-5

28%

2.84

7.93

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

18%

4.56

1/2 ✗

22.7

1/X

12.55

X/1

11%

7.17

X/2

15%

5.44

X/X

15%

5.4

2/1

29.0

2/2

25%

2.96

2/X

12.1

Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 3% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.

STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.

EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.

Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers

iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures

HOME Atletico Madrid The Market 35%

Head to Head

AWAY Real Madrid The Market 48%

Great Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Strong

1.50 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.86

1.22 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.20

Weak Attack Strength Strong

– Defense Strength Bad

40% Ball Possession 60%

12 Total Shots 12

4 Shots on Target 4

5 Corners 6

272 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 469 · 84%

– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26

– Crosses 5

– Yellow Cards 2

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Atletico Madrid

2W-3D-1L

AWAY Real Madrid

1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17

1.30 xG 1.13

43% Ball Possession 57%

11 Total Shots 14

4 Shots on Target 5

6 Corners 5

428 Passes 596

86% Pass Accuracy 92%

21 Box Touches 28

19 Crosses 16

3 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

27.09.2025 Atletico Madrid

5-2 HT 2-2

Real Madrid İS1

12.03.2025 Atletico Madrid

1-0 HT 1-0

Real Madrid ŞMP

04.03.2025 Real Madrid

2-1 HT 1-1

Atletico Madrid ŞMP

08.02.2025 Real Madrid

1-1 HT 0-1

Atletico Madrid İS1

29.09.2024 Atletico Madrid

1-1 HT 0-0

Real Madrid İS1

04.02.2024 Real Madrid

1-1 HT 1-0

Atletico Madrid İS1

Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Atletico Madrid

1 - 2

AWAY Real Madrid

2.30 xG 1.21

55% Ball Possession 45%

22 Total Shots 8

6 Shots on Target 4

9 Corners 1

468 Passes 383

87% Pass Accuracy 84%

37 Box Touches 16

33 Crosses 10

0 Yellow Cards 1

REVIEW Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Real Madrid nicked a narrow win over Atletico Madrid 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

True to our pre-match read, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

The match data tells the story: possession split 55% to 45% in Atletico Madrid's favour, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 2.30 to 1.21 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atletico Madrid.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.67 a game for Atletico Madrid against 1.17 for Real Madrid.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Result & Final Score

Atletico Madrid 1 - 2 Real Madrid in the Spain - Super Cup on 08/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 31%, draw 25%, Real Madrid 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes

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