Grimsby Town 2-1 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 8 Feb 2025

Grimsby Town
2-1 HT 0-1
Carlisle United
📅08/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Grimsby Town vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 27% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.05
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
16%
4.94
X/2
13%
6.6
X/X
12%
4.64
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
13%
4.76
2/X
8%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.6pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.1pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Grimsby Town v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 33%
-13% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.36/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.04
-20% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
256 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 214 · 63%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
21.1 Crosses 16.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Grimsby Town vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grimsby Town
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.71 xG 0.96
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
250 Passes 207
64% Pass Accuracy 61%
18 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-3 HT 2-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
04.03.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-0 HT 2-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
27.09.2022 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-2 HT 0-2 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
09.03.2021 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 0-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
24.10.2020 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
14.12.2019 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-0 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2

Grimsby Town 2-1 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grimsby Town
2-1
AWAY Carlisle United
3.66 xG 1.28
50% Ball Possession 50%
26 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 4
217 Passes 209
66% Pass Accuracy 63%
46 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Grimsby Town vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grimsby Town nicked a narrow win over Carlisle United 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Grimsby Town as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Grimsby Town had 50% of the ball to Carlisle United's 50%, shots finished 26-6, expected goals 3.66 to 1.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Grimsby Town's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carlisle United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Grimsby Town and 1.33 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Grimsby Town vs Carlisle United?

Grimsby Town 2-1 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grimsby Town vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grimsby Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Grimsby Town 42%, draw 26%, Carlisle United 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Grimsby Town), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Grimsby Town) ✓ BTTS Yes
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