Carlisle United 2-3 Grimsby Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 28 Sep 2024

Carlisle United
2-3 HT 2-1
Grimsby Town
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Carlisle United vs Grimsby Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.28
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.82
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.55
X/1
13%
4.53
X/2
6%
6.94
X/X
10%
4.7
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
22%
5.12
2/X
5%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carlisle United v Grimsby Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 31%
-1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.25/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.32
-5% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
257 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 70%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
18.2 Crosses 18.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

Carlisle United vs Grimsby Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Grimsby Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.93 xG 0.73
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
171 Passes 251
57% Pass Accuracy 61%
18 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.03.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-0 HT 2-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
27.09.2022 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-2 HT 0-2 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
09.03.2021 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 0-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
24.10.2020 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
14.12.2019 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-0 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
22.04.2019 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2

Carlisle United 2-3 Grimsby Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
2-3
AWAY Grimsby Town
1.11 xG 0.61
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
387 Passes 250
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 20
28 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Grimsby Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grimsby Town nicked a narrow win over Carlisle United 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Carlisle United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Carlisle United had 58% of the ball to Grimsby Town's 42%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.11 to 0.61 — the balance of chances actually favoured Carlisle United.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carlisle United had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Carlisle United and 0.67 for Grimsby Town.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Grimsby Town?

Carlisle United 2-3 Grimsby Town in the England - 2nd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Grimsby Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 41%, draw 25%, Grimsby Town 34%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✗ BTTS No
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