Walsall 4-0 Colchester — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.15
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.72
6+ Goals
11%
15.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.72 — our 26% vs market 21.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.68
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.95
X/1
11%
4.33
X/2
10%
7.29
X/X
13%
4.66
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.5
2/2
14%
5.55
2/X
6%
14.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.7pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Walsall EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Colchester EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.70/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.57
-6% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
283 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 70%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
22.5 Crosses 15.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Walsall
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Colchester
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.28 xG 1.08
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
226 Passes 218
68% Pass Accuracy 65%
26 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Colchester Colchester 1-1 HT 0-1 Walsall Walsall İN2
02.09.2023 Walsall Walsall 1-0 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
14.02.2023 Colchester Colchester 0-0 HT 0-0 Walsall Walsall İN2
13.09.2022 Walsall Walsall 1-1 HT 0-1 Colchester Colchester İN2
30.04.2022 Colchester Colchester 2-2 HT 1-1 Walsall Walsall İN2
11.12.2021 Walsall Walsall 3-0 HT 2-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Walsall
4-0
AWAY Colchester
2.79 xG 0.56
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 5
219 Passes 293
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 34
23 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Walsall vs Colchester
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Walsall cruised past Colchester 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Walsall as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Walsall had 44% of the ball to Colchester's 56%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.79 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Walsall had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Walsall and 0.67 for Colchester.

What was the final score of Walsall vs Colchester?

Walsall 4-0 Colchester in the England - 2nd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Walsall vs Colchester?

Before kick-off our model rated a Walsall win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Walsall 44%, draw 27%, Colchester 29%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Walsall), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Walsall) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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