Gillingham 2-0 Barrow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.64
Over 2.5
38%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.62
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.48
6+ Goals
8%
23.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 33% vs market 32.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.23
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.05
X/1
15%
4.62
X/2
11%
6.16
X/X
22%
4.09
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
12%
4.82
2/X
5%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.7pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.8pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
57%
+4.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
43%
-4.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.4pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Barrow EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +4%
1.36/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.34
-5% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
251 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 67%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
21.4 Crosses 19.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Barrow
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
0.95 xG 1.26
57% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
321 Passes 193
72% Pass Accuracy 62%
20 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Gillingham Gillingham 3-0 HT 1-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
05.03.2024 Barrow Barrow 2-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
01.04.2023 Barrow Barrow 2-1 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
22.10.2022 Gillingham Gillingham 1-1 HT 0-1 Barrow Barrow İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
2-0
AWAY Barrow
1.34 xG 0.89
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
244 Passes 289
65% Pass Accuracy 72%
14 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 17
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Barrow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham beat Barrow 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 32% / 30%) promised a tight game; Gillingham found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Gillingham had 49% of the ball to Barrow's 51%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 1.34 to 0.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Barrow led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Gillingham and 1.25 for Barrow.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Barrow?

Gillingham 2-0 Barrow in the England - 2nd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Barrow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 38%, draw 32%, Barrow 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gillingham), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gillingham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
28 Sep 2024
00:00 Harrogate Town vs Bradford City Analysis →
00:00 Cheltenham Town vs Fleetwood Town Analysis →
14:30 Walsall vs Colchester Analysis →
17:00 Carlisle United vs Grimsby Town Analysis →
17:00 Newport County vs Crewe Alexandra Analysis →
17:00 Bromley vs Milton Keynes Dons Analysis →