Newport County 2-1 Crewe Alexandra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 28 Sep 2024

Newport County
2-1 HT 1-0
Crewe Alexandra
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Newport County vs Crewe Alexandra Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
16.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.33
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
9%
14.75
X/1
8%
6.96
X/2
14%
4.31
X/X
12%
4.74
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.75
2/X
6%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
28%
-1.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-0.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Crewe Alexandra — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 51%
-5% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.24/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.33/0.79
-21% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
252 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 76%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
20.8 Crosses 20.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 0.5

Newport County vs Crewe Alexandra Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.46 xG 1.12
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
219 Passes 276
62% Pass Accuracy 67%
29 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.12.2023 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 0-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
15.08.2023 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 4-2 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
08.05.2023 Newport County Newport County 2-2 HT 0-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
02.12.2022 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-2 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
24.08.2019 Newport County Newport County 1-0 HT 0-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
12.01.2019 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 3-2 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2

Newport County 2-1 Crewe Alexandra — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
2-1
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
0.73 xG 1.53
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
249 Passes 325
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 28
22 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Crewe Alexandra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County squeezed past Crewe Alexandra 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Crewe Alexandra at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Newport County had 45% of the ball to Crewe Alexandra's 55%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.73 to 1.53 — the balance of chances actually favoured Crewe Alexandra.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Newport County and 1.83 for Crewe Alexandra.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Crewe Alexandra?

Newport County 2-1 Crewe Alexandra in the England - 2nd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Crewe Alexandra?

Before kick-off our model rated an Crewe Alexandra win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Newport County 27%, draw 27%, Crewe Alexandra 46%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Crewe Alexandra)
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