Freiburg 1-0 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 8 Feb 2025

Freiburg
1-0 HT 1-0
Heidenheim
📅08/02/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Freiburg vs Heidenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
10.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.17 — our 26% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.15
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.6
X/1
15%
4.33
X/2
10%
9.8
X/X
11%
5.21
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.55
2/2
15%
7.64
2/X
6%
15.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
55%
-10.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+10.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v Heidenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
2.02/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.55
-12% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +28%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
388 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 73%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
22.5 Crosses 16.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Freiburg vs Heidenheim Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Heidenheim
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.59 xG 1.08
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
413 Passes 271
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.09.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-3 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
11.05.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
20.12.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 3-2 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
08.05.2016 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
27.11.2015 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-2 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL2

Freiburg 1-0 Heidenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
1-0
AWAY Heidenheim
0.98 xG 0.52
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
444 Passes 370
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg edged past Heidenheim 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Freiburg as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Freiburg had 53% of the ball to Heidenheim's 47%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.98 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Freiburg and 1.00 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Heidenheim?

Freiburg 1-0 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 45%, draw 25%, Heidenheim 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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