Heidenheim 0-3 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
34%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.64
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.31
6+ Goals
11%
11.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.6
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
5%
12.9
X/1
17%
6.68
X/2
13%
4.95
X/X
16%
4.75
2/1
9%
32.0
2/2
15%
3.0
2/X
8%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
30%
+7.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
34%
Away Win
42%
-8.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.7pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 46%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.30/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.20
-14% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -11%
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 79%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
24.7 Crosses 17.1
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Freiburg
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.27 xG 1.70
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
268 Passes 413
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
20.12.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 3-2 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
08.05.2016 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
27.11.2015 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-2 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
0-3
AWAY Freiburg
0.68 xG 1.39
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
284 Passes 411
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg cruised past Heidenheim 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Freiburg found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Heidenheim had 42% of the ball to Freiburg's 58%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.68 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Heidenheim and 1.75 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Freiburg?

Heidenheim 0-3 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heidenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 38%, draw 28%, Freiburg 34%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Heidenheim) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
21 Sep 2024
16:30 Union Berlin vs Hoffenheim Analysis →
16:30 Bochum vs Holstein Kiel Analysis →
16:30 Werder Bremen vs Bayern Münih Analysis →
19:30 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mönchengladbach Analysis →