Union Berlin 2-1 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.23
Over 2.5
61%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.56
No
41%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.6
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
30%
2.87
6+ Goals
13%
8.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.32
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
10%
4.42
X/2
6%
8.62
X/X
8%
5.66
2/1
8%
21.2
2/2
15%
5.88
2/X
9%
13.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.4pp
39%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.7pp
61%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.7pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.0pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 28%
+14% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -7%
1.46/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.80
+11% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
20.5 Crosses 16.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.83 xG 1.38
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
302 Passes 401
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-1 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
23.09.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-2 HT 0-2 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
20.05.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 4-2 HT 2-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
21.01.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-1 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
15.01.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
22.08.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-2 HT 2-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
2-1
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.21 xG 0.39
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
375 Passes 323
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Hoffenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin squeezed past Hoffenheim 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Union Berlin as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Union Berlin had 51% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 49%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.21 to 0.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Union Berlin and 1.67 for Hoffenheim.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Hoffenheim?

Union Berlin 2-1 Hoffenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Hoffenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 46%, draw 25%, Hoffenheim 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Berlin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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