Lille 1-2 Le Havre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 8 Feb 2025

Lille
1-2 HT 0-1
Le Havre
📅08/02/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lille vs Le Havre Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.27
Draw
22%
5.15
Away
17%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.47
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.78
6+ Goals
11%
7.69
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.47 — our 24% vs market 16.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1.41
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
23.85
X/1
15%
3.67
X/2
5%
22.1
X/X
12%
8.28
2/1
7%
23.0
2/2
7%
20.15
2/X
6%
28.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
74%
-13.3pp
22%
Draw
16%
+5.4pp
17%
Away Win
9%
+7.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.2pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Le Havre — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Havre EU Bookmakers 12%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.01/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.76
-8% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +19%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
488 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 77%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
18.6 Crosses 14.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Lille vs Le Havre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Le Havre
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.88 xG 0.62
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
555 Passes 298
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
34 Box Touches 10
13 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Le Havre Le Havre 0-3 HT 0-2 Lille Lille FR1
17.02.2024 Lille Lille 3-0 HT 2-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
01.10.2023 Le Havre Le Havre 0-2 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
26.07.2023 Lille Lille 3-2 HT 1-1 Le Havre Le Havre HAZ
23.05.2009 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
20.12.2008 Lille Lille 3-1 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1

Lille 1-2 Le Havre — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
1-2
AWAY Le Havre
1.56 xG 2.04
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 10
485 Passes 197
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 23
40 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lille vs Le Havre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Havre nicked a narrow win over Lille 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Lille at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lille had 67% of the ball to Le Havre's 33%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.56 to 2.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Lille and 0.50 for Le Havre.

What was the final score of Lille vs Le Havre?

Lille 1-2 Le Havre in the France - Ligue 1 on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Le Havre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Lille 61%, draw 22%, Le Havre 17%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Lille), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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