Necaxa 3-2 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 8 Feb 2025

📅08/02/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.49
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
2.83
6+ Goals
9%
8.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.08 — our 28% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
63%
-13.0pp
27%
Draw
21%
+5.8pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.8pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -20%
1.65/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.89
-18% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
378 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 78%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
20.8 Crosses 13.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Santos Laguna
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.76 xG 1.30
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
246 Passes 387
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.09.2024 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-2 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
13.04.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 2-0 HT 1-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
25.09.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-5 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
01.04.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
07.09.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
24.01.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-4 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
3-2
AWAY Santos Laguna
3.36 xG 1.63
60% Ball Possession 40%
25 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 6
396 Passes 228
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
31 Box Touches 23
28 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa squeezed past Santos Laguna 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Necaxa as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Necaxa had 60% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 40%, shots finished 25-15, expected goals 3.36 to 1.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Necaxa's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Necaxa and 1.50 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Santos Laguna?

Necaxa 3-2 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 50%, draw 27%, Santos Laguna 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Necaxa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
8 Feb 2025
04:00 Queretaro vs Atletico San Luis Analysis →
06:00 Puebla vs Club America Analysis →