Alloa Athletic 2-3 Arbroath — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.36
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 29% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+5.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-3.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alloa Athletic EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Arbroath EU Bookmakers 50%
+5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
1.20/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/1.39
+2% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -19%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
200 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 88%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alloa Athletic
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Arbroath
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
04.01.2025 Arbroath Arbroath 1-3 HT 1-2 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
26.10.2024 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 0-1 HT 0-1 Arbroath Arbroath İK1
11.10.2024 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 1-0 HT 1-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKCK
31.08.2024 Arbroath Arbroath 0-0 HT 0-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
03.04.2021 Arbroath Arbroath 2-1 HT 0-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İKCL
13.02.2021 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 1-1 HT 0-1 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
POST-MATCH Alloa Athletic vs Arbroath
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arbroath edged past Alloa Athletic 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arbroath as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alloa Athletic and 0.83 for Arbroath.

What was the final score of Alloa Athletic vs Arbroath?

Alloa Athletic 2-3 Arbroath in the Scotland - 1st Division on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alloa Athletic vs Arbroath?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arbroath win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Alloa Athletic 32%, draw 24%, Arbroath 43%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arbroath) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arbroath) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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