Nottingham Forest 1-0 Manchester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.29
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
41%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.35
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.82
6+ Goals
13%
7.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
5.4
1/2
8%
21.25
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
11%
7.93
X/2
7%
4.86
X/X
8%
5.53
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
26%
2.53
2/X
10%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
27%
+9.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
41%
Away Win
48%
-7.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.3pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City EU Bookmakers 52%
+3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -29%
0.99/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.67
+24% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -14%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 83%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.2
17.8 Crosses 15.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Manchester City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.92 xG 2.37
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
245 Passes 602
77% Pass Accuracy 90%
14 Box Touches 34
10 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
04.12.2024 Manchester City Manchester City 3-0 HT 2-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
28.04.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-2 HT 0-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
23.09.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 2-0 HT 2-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
18.02.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
31.08.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 6-0 HT 3-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
03.01.2009 Manchester City Manchester City 0-3 HT 0-2 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
1-0
AWAY Manchester City
0.73 xG 0.86
31% Ball Possession 69%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
208 Passes 547
80% Pass Accuracy 90%
18 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest nicked a narrow win over Manchester City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 23% / 41% — and on the day Nottingham Forest made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 31% of the ball to Manchester City's 69%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.73 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Nottingham Forest and 2.33 for Manchester City.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?

Nottingham Forest 1-0 Manchester City in the England - Premier League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 36%, draw 23%, Manchester City 41%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Manchester City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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