Elche 3-1 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
21%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 28% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.5
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
14%
4.44
X/2
6%
8.18
X/X
14%
4.71
2/1
9%
24.3
2/2
10%
6.4
2/X
6%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
50%
+0.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-3.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.7pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elche EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 27%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.68/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.70
+9% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
279 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
24.8 Crosses 16.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elche
3W-1D-2L
AWAY CD Castellon
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.04 xG 1.04
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
244 Passes 307
71% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
22.12.2024 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-2 HT 0-2 Elche Elche İS2
31.07.2024 Elche Elche 0-6 HT 0-3 CD Castellon CD Castellon HAZ
18.04.2010 Elche Elche 2-0 HT 0-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
14.11.2009 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-2 HT 0-2 Elche Elche İS2
31.05.2009 Elche Elche 0-1 HT 0-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
03.01.2009 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-2 HT 2-2 Elche Elche İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elche
3-1
AWAY CD Castellon
1.87 xG 0.61
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
359 Passes 241
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 30
9 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Elche vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elche got the better of CD Castellon 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Elche as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Elche had 58% of the ball to CD Castellon's 42%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.87 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Elche had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Elche and 1.50 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Elche vs CD Castellon?

Elche 3-1 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elche vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elche win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Elche 51%, draw 29%, CD Castellon 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elche) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Elche) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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