Urawa Red Diamonds 1-0 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.75
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.96
6+ Goals
9%
18.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 32% vs market 29.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.65
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
18%
4.45
X/2
13%
7.74
X/X
15%
4.31
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
8%
6.23
2/X
8%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-6.3pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.3pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -44% / -44%
1.76/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/0.92
+21% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
418 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
17.1 Crosses 21.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds
1-0
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
0.67 xG 0.32
63% Ball Possession 37%
10 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
475 Passes 230
80% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Urawa Red Diamonds vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Urawa Red Diamonds nicked a narrow win over Fagiano Okayama 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Urawa Red Diamonds as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Urawa Red Diamonds had 63% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 37%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.67 to 0.32.

What was the final score of Urawa Red Diamonds vs Fagiano Okayama?

Urawa Red Diamonds 1-0 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Urawa Red Diamonds vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Urawa Red Diamonds win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Urawa Red Diamonds 42%, draw 30%, Fagiano Okayama 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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