Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.55
6+ Goals
8%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.46
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
14%
5.07
X/2
11%
6.25
X/X
13%
3.81
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
17%
4.79
2/X
7%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.3pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.0pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.6pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -16%
1.32/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.27
+1% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
429 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
20.8 Crosses 16.8
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.89 xG 1.15
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
362 Passes 301
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.06.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
21.04.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
26.08.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-1 HT 1-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
03.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-1 HT 3-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
05.11.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
13.07.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-2 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.76 xG 2.05
58% Ball Possession 42%
24 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 6
476 Passes 306
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
42 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka and Nagoya Grampus shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 58% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 42%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 1.76 to 2.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.50 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus?

Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 38%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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