Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.53
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.69
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.16
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
15%
4.66
X/2
13%
6.65
X/X
11%
3.78
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
11%
5.23
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.3pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.8pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 31%
-1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +11%
1.31/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.13
-4% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +44%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
20.2 Crosses 16.0
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.83 xG 1.17
57% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
423 Passes 303
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
26.08.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-1 HT 1-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
03.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-1 HT 3-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
05.11.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
13.07.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-2 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JPK
14.05.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.65 xG 0.40
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 11
223 Passes 341
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka nicked a narrow win over Nagoya Grampus 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cerezo Osaka as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 40% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 60%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.65 to 0.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.50 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus?

Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 41%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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