Sagan Tosu 1-4 Kashiwa Reysol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
48%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.03
Over 2.5
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.82
2-3 Goals
35%
1.83
4-5 Goals
27%
3.2
6+ Goals
13%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.02
1/2 EV+ ✓
8%
22.3
1/X
5%
14.45
X/1
9%
8.28
X/2
14%
4.24
X/X
11%
5.28
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
26%
2.38
2/X
8%
14.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.3 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+3.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
48%
Away Win
51%
-3.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-1.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+1.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 56%
+5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
1.13/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.00
+13% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -6%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
287 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 409 · 80%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
18.1 Crosses 20.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.29 xG 1.28
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
493 Passes 278
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
28.04.2024 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 1-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
25.11.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 2-2 HT 2-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
15.04.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
10.07.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-1 HT 0-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
29.04.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-4 HT 0-2 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
13.04.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-3 HT 0-2 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
1-4
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
1.34 xG 2.79
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 1
484 Passes 315
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 29
25 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Kashiwa Reysol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashiwa Reysol ran out comfortable winners over Sagan Tosu 4-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kashiwa Reysol as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 59% of the ball to Kashiwa Reysol's 41%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.34 to 2.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashiwa Reysol led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.50 for Kashiwa Reysol.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Sagan Tosu 1-4 Kashiwa Reysol in the Japan - J1 League on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 29%, draw 24%, Kashiwa Reysol 48%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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