Gamba Osaka 1-3 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Jun 2024

Gamba Osaka
1-3 HT 1-1
Machida Zelvia
📅30/06/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Gamba Osaka vs Machida Zelvia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.84
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
39%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.64
Over 2.5
39%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.49
6+ Goals
8%
23.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 34% vs market 32.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.58
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
9%
13.3
X/1
8%
6.09
X/2
16%
5.02
X/X
12%
3.84
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
19%
3.47
2/X
10%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.4pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.3pp
39%
Away Win
38%
+1.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
57%
+4.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
43%
-4.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.6pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gamba Osaka v Machida Zelvia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 42%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.21/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/0.91
+4% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +49%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
273 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 75%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.4
16.9 Crosses 28.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.3

Gamba Osaka vs Machida Zelvia Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.52 xG 1.92
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
457 Passes 181
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 29
27 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.02.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-1 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP

Gamba Osaka 1-3 Machida Zelvia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
1-3
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.42 xG 1.91
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
394 Passes 333
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia saw off Gamba Osaka 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (30% / 31% / 39%) promised a tight game; Machida Zelvia found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 53% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 47%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.42 to 1.91.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?

Gamba Osaka 1-3 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 30%, draw 31%, Machida Zelvia 39%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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