Nakhon Pathom 1-4 BG Pathum United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
42%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+5.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-5.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.5pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nakhon Pathom EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 51%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.16/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.32
-18% / +138% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
272 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 80%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
10.3 Crosses 21.7
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nakhon Pathom
0W-0D-2L
AWAY BG Pathum United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.04 xG 0.96
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
238 Passes 452
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 3-1 HT 1-1 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom TAY
19.05.2024 Nakhon Pathom Nakhon Pathom 1-3 HT 0-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nakhon Pathom
1-4
AWAY BG Pathum United
0.31 xG 1.93
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 4
210 Passes 183
67% Pass Accuracy 68%
12 Box Touches 13
11 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United ran out comfortable winners over Nakhon Pathom 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had BG Pathum United as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Nakhon Pathom had 54% of the ball to BG Pathum United's 46%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.31 to 1.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nakhon Pathom and 3.00 for BG Pathum United.

What was the final score of Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United?

Nakhon Pathom 1-4 BG Pathum United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nakhon Pathom vs BG Pathum United?

Before kick-off our model rated an BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Nakhon Pathom 32%, draw 26%, BG Pathum United 42%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BG Pathum United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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