Portland Timbers 4-1 Nashville SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 8 Jul 2024

📅08/07/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.36
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.96
6+ Goals
11%
8.83
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.36 — our 29% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.38
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
15%
4.48
X/2
10%
8.58
X/X
16%
5.36
2/1
10%
21.85
2/2
6%
5.89
2/X
5%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
52%
-1.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.5pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Timbers EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 27%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.73/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.19
+14% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +41%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
386 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
19.9 Crosses 17.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portland Timbers
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Nashville SC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.20 xG 1.23
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
402 Passes 365
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2022 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 1-1 HT 1-1 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
04.07.2022 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2-2 HT 1-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
09.03.2020 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 1-0 HT 1-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Timbers
4-1
AWAY Nashville SC
3.26 xG 2.13
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
469 Passes 405
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
40 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Portland Timbers vs Nashville SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Timbers swept aside Nashville SC 4-1. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Portland Timbers as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Portland Timbers had 53% of the ball to Nashville SC's 47%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 3.26 to 2.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Portland Timbers had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Portland Timbers and 1.00 for Nashville SC.

What was the final score of Portland Timbers vs Nashville SC?

Portland Timbers 4-1 Nashville SC in the USA - Major League on 08/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Timbers vs Nashville SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Timbers win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Portland Timbers 50%, draw 27%, Nashville SC 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portland Timbers) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Portland Timbers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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