Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 Minnesota United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 8 Jul 2024

📅08/07/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
29%
3.59
Over 2.5
71%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%
1.39
No
33%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
12%
8.75
2-3 Goals
32%
2.4
4-5 Goals
33%
2.36
6+ Goals
23%
3.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.77
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.65
X/1
13%
4.24
X/2
11%
12.65
X/X
9%
8.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
17.05
2/2
7%
7.59
2/X
7%
15.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.05 — our 9% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-9.6pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.6pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.0pp
29%
Under 2.5
24%
+4.8pp
71%
Over 2.5
76%
-4.8pp
67%
BTTS Yes
68%
-0.8pp
33%
BTTS No
32%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Los Angeles Galaxy EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +17%
2.15/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.81
+8% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
417 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
18.2 Crosses 13.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Los Angeles Galaxy
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Minnesota United
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
2.36 xG 2.16
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
424 Passes 333
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 31
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.05.2024 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-2 HT 1-0 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
08.10.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 5-2 HT 2-1 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
21.09.2023 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 4-3 HT 1-3 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
30.06.2022 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 2-3 HT 0-3 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
19.05.2022 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-1 HT 0-0 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy ABD
08.11.2021 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 3-3 HT 1-2 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Los Angeles Galaxy
2-1
AWAY Minnesota United
2.54 xG 1.21
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
606 Passes 343
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Los Angeles Galaxy vs Minnesota United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Los Angeles Galaxy nicked a narrow win over Minnesota United 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Los Angeles Galaxy as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (71%), both teams to score (67%) came in.

On the day, Los Angeles Galaxy had 61% of the ball to Minnesota United's 39%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 2.54 to 1.21 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Los Angeles Galaxy's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Minnesota United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy and 2.83 for Minnesota United.

What was the final score of Los Angeles Galaxy vs Minnesota United?

Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 Minnesota United in the USA - Major League on 08/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Los Angeles Galaxy vs Minnesota United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Los Angeles Galaxy win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Los Angeles Galaxy 53%, draw 24%, Minnesota United 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Los Angeles Galaxy), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Los Angeles Galaxy) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
8 Jul 2024
03:30 Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas Analysis →
03:30 San Jose Earthquakes vs Chicago Fire Analysis →
04:30 Colorado Rapids vs St. Louis City Analysis →
05:30 Portland Timbers vs Nashville SC Analysis →