Fafe 1-4 Amarante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 8 Sep 2024

📅08/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.6
Over 2.5
49%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
41%
+3.0pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.2pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
59%
-7.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
41%
+7.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fafe EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Amarante EU Bookmakers 34%
-50% / -50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +57% / +57%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.00
-31% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% /
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fafe
1-4
AWAY Amarante
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fafe vs Amarante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante cruised past Fafe 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Fafe at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Fafe had 57% of the ball to Amarante's 43%, shots finished 14-7.

What was the final score of Fafe vs Amarante?

Fafe 1-4 Amarante in the Portugal - Cup on 08/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fafe vs Amarante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fafe 44%, draw 26%, Amarante 30%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fafe), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fafe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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