Verl 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 8 Nov 2025

Verl
1-1 HT 1-0
Erzgebirge Aue
📅08/11/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2025/2026

Verl vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.8
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
24%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.53
No
45%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.88
2-3 Goals
37%
1.95
4-5 Goals
25%
2.73
6+ Goals
11%
7.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.36
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
17%
4.76
X/2
9%
8.71
X/X
11%
6.09
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.35
2/2
9%
5.93
2/X
5%
14.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.35 — our 8% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
51%
+2.9pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.1pp
23%
Away Win
25%
-1.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
61%
-6.0pp
45%
BTTS No
39%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Verl v Erzgebirge Aue — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Verl EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
2.01/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/2.01
+16% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
413 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
19.6 Crosses 17.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Verl vs Erzgebirge Aue Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Verl
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
570 Passes 287
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.04.2025 Verl Verl 5-1 HT 4-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
30.11.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-5 HT 2-4 Verl Verl AL3
13.04.2024 Verl Verl 3-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
03.11.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-2 HT 0-0 Verl Verl AL3
15.04.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-3 HT 0-1 Verl Verl AL3
23.10.2022 Verl Verl 3-2 HT 2-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3

Verl 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Verl
1-1
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
73% Ball Possession 27%
28 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 5
610 Passes 172
90% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Verl vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Verl and Erzgebirge Aue couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Verl at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Verl had 73% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 27%, shots finished 28-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Verl had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Verl and 1.50 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Verl vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Verl 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 08/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Verl vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Verl 54%, draw 22%, Erzgebirge Aue 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Verl), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Verl) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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