Verl 5-1 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.65
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.09
6+ Goals
11%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Verl EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.67/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.93
-3% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -17%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
373 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.0 Crosses 19.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Verl
5W-0D-0L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
3.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
577 Passes 250
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
11 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-5 HT 2-4 Verl Verl AL3
13.04.2024 Verl Verl 3-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
03.11.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-2 HT 0-0 Verl Verl AL3
15.04.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-3 HT 0-1 Verl Verl AL3
23.10.2022 Verl Verl 3-2 HT 2-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Verl
5-1
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
564 Passes 324
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Verl vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Verl cruised past Erzgebirge Aue 5-1. Half-time: 4-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Verl as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Verl had 62% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 38%, shots finished 15-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Verl had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.20 goals for Verl and 1.60 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Verl vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Verl 5-1 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Verl vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Verl 43%, draw 26%, Erzgebirge Aue 31%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Verl), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Verl) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
26 Apr 2025
15:00 Dynamo Dresden vs Sandhausen Analysis →
15:00 Rot-Weiss Essen vs Saarbrücken Analysis →
15:00 Borussia Dortmund II vs Hannover 96 II Analysis →
15:00 Viktoria Köln vs Wehen Wiesbaden Analysis →
15:00 Unterhaching vs Energie Cottbus Analysis →