Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Madrid v Sevilla — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Sevilla
İS1
1-1
HT 0-0
Sevilla
HAZ
6-1
HT 2-1
Sevilla
İS1
0-2
HT 0-1
Atletico Madrid
İS1
Atletico Madrid 4-3 Sevilla — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Madrid nicked a narrow win over Sevilla 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Atletico Madrid had 57% of the ball to Sevilla's 43%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 2.04 to 0.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atletico Madrid's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.50 for Sevilla.
What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla?
Atletico Madrid 4-3 Sevilla in the Spain - Primera Liga on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 59%, draw 25%, Sevilla 16%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.