AGF Aarhus 1-0 Brondby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - DBU Cup, 8 Dec 2024

📅08/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
41%
-6.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.7pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+6.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.3pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Brondby EU Bookmakers 34%
-44% / -44% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
1.08/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.53
-93% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +107%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
276 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 78%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
11.0 Crosses 14.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Brondby
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 1.16
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
309 Passes 452
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 1-0 Brondby Brondby DAN
11.08.2024 Brondby Brondby 0-1 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
26.05.2024 Brondby Brondby 2-3 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
14.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-2 HT 1-1 Brondby Brondby DAN
10.12.2023 Brondby Brondby 2-1 HT 2-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAK
07.12.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-0 HT 1-0 Brondby Brondby DAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
1-0
AWAY Brondby
0.71 xG 0.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
309 Passes 486
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 39
21 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Brondby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus nicked a narrow win over Brondby 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; AGF Aarhus found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 42% of the ball to Brondby's 58%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.71 to 0.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for AGF Aarhus and 1.00 for Brondby.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Brondby?

AGF Aarhus 1-0 Brondby in the Denmark - DBU Cup on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Brondby?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brondby win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 34%, draw 29%, Brondby 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Brondby) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brondby) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DAK More Denmark - DBU Cup
8 Dec 2024
15:00 Brabrand vs Viborg Analysis →
17:30 Silkeborg IF vs Aalborg Analysis →