FC Akhmat Grozny 1-0 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 8 Dec 2024

📅08/12/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.8
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.95
Over 2.5
41%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.73
No
56%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.57
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.44
6+ Goals
8%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 31% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.43
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.85
X/1
10%
4.29
X/2
13%
8.56
X/X
14%
4.98
2/1
7%
23.85
2/2
9%
6.39
2/X
6%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-6.9pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+4.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
48%
+11.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
52%
-11.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
54%
-9.8pp
56%
BTTS No
46%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 27%
-5% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -12%
1.72/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.45
-2% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
332 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
18.7 Crosses 16.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.78 xG 1.10
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
210 Passes 330
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.07.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
04.04.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-1 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUSK
26.11.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
20.08.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 4-0 HT 3-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
04.03.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 3-1 HT 2-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
19.10.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 4-2 HT 3-2 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
1-0
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.87 xG 0.50
38% Ball Possession 62%
22 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 10
193 Passes 362
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny squeezed past FK Orenburg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Akhmat Grozny as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 38% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 62%, shots finished 22-12, expected goals 1.87 to 0.50 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FC Akhmat Grozny's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 1.17 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs FK Orenburg?

FC Akhmat Grozny 1-0 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Akhmat Grozny win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 44%, draw 28%, FK Orenburg 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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