De Graafschap 0-2 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 9 Feb 2024

📅09/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.24
6+ Goals
9%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 28% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.36
1/2
6%
24.6
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
9%
6.37
X/2
16%
4.89
X/X
15%
4.86
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
16%
3.01
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.9pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.1pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-4.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.8pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 46%
-17% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.28/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/0.94
-6% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +32%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
334 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 75%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
24.2 Crosses 19.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Willem II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.72 xG 1.55
55% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
331 Passes 264
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2023 Willem II Willem II 4-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
29.04.2023 Willem II Willem II 3-2 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
16.12.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-3 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
09.03.2019 Willem II Willem II 3-2 HT 2-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL
30.09.2018 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
13.02.2016 Willem II Willem II 0-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
0-2
AWAY Willem II
0.41 xG 1.53
59% Ball Possession 41%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 0
480 Passes 313
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II got the better of De Graafschap 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (31% / 31% / 38%) promised a tight game; Willem II found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, De Graafschap had 59% of the ball to Willem II's 41%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.41 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for De Graafschap and 2.33 for Willem II.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Willem II?

De Graafschap 0-2 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 31%, draw 31%, Willem II 38%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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